How DiamondEdge works
DiamondEdge is an AI sports research platform. One shared workflow runs across MLB, NFL and college football: recent form, matchup, workload and role, game conditions, and lineup or availability status, combined into an AI Hit Chance (the model's estimated chance the prop hits) with a plain-English why. No black boxes, just the data we actually have, with clear data-confidence labels.
The six steps below run for every live sport
MLB, NFL and college football research are live. NBA lines post when the regular season starts. Graded results cover MLB, NFL and college football.
Collect the daily slate
For each live sport we pull in the day's schedule and the status context that sport depends on, such as probable pitchers and lineup status in MLB, so we know who is expected to play. When a status is not posted yet, we show it as unavailable rather than guessing.
Set the research reference
We identify player markets worth researching, from strikeouts and total bases in MLB to passing, rushing and receiving yards in football. On the MLB, NFL and college football boards each one shows the line the books post, with each book's price. Where no authoritative market line is posted, a card can show a DiamondEdge line instead, set from the player's own data and labeled as one. A DiamondEdge line is not a sportsbook line.
Rate the prop
Our model scores recent form, matchup, workload and role, game conditions, and lineup or availability status, then gives each prop an AI Hit Chance: the model's estimate of how often a prop like this hits, tested on past games. It is a chance, not a promise. Inputs we do not have are marked unavailable, never estimated.
Apply guardrails
We flag potential concerns, like uncertain lineup or availability status, thin samples, or tough matchups, and cap data-confidence labels so nothing gets overstated.
Highlight Top Picks
Top Picks are the day's highest AI Hit Chance props: 65% or more when the slate allows, 55% or more in football and on thin playoff slates. Strong rows also appear in the Free Preview, on the full Today board, or, in MLB, as Home Run Radar research candidates. DiamondEdge lines are labeled as DiamondEdge lines, not as market lines.
Explain the why, then grade it
The breakdown turns the computed stats into a plain-English why, so you can see which inputs drove the AI Hit Chance and which were unavailable. After each MLB game, Free Preview picks are graded against the final box score, and NFL and college football free picks and Top Picks are graded the morning after each game. Every result, misses included, is on the public Results page.
Football research: NFL and college football
NFL (regular season and postseason) and college football are live DiamondEdge sports and are included in the Free Preview. They use football-specific market families (passing, rushing, receiving and touchdown markets) scored with the same five research pillars rather than renamed baseball logic, and every card with at least 4 decided games carries an AI Hit Chance on the same bands as MLB. Checking the latest published College football slate. Checking the latest published NFL slate.
DiamondEdge is a research platform, not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers and do not guarantee outcomes. Lines and prices come from the sportsbooks we track; our chance comes from the player's own games. Missing inputs are shown as unavailable rather than estimated.
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